Teck Resources' Copper Ore Production Declined, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, October 10, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened overnight at $10,886.5/mt. At the beginning of the session, copper prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of $11,000/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of $10,760.5/mt, finally closing at $10,776.5/mt, a gain of 0.71%. Trading volume reached 45,000 lots, and open interest reached 319,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2511 contract opened at 87,400 yuan/mt, touched a high of 88,090 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated downward, probing down to 86,480 yuan/mt near the session's close, finally settling at 86,650 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.86%. Trading volume reached 114,000 lots, and open interest reached 219,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Summary] News:
(1) On October 8, Canadian mining company Teck Resources announced a reduction in the 2025 production guidance for its two major copper mines. Due to the impact of tailings dam heightening work, the production halt at the Chilean Quebrada Blanca copper mine was extended. The production expectation was revised down from 210,000-230,000 mt to 170,000-190,000 mt, and the 2026 guidance was also lowered from 280,000-310,000 mt to 200,000-235,000 mt. Affected by grade decline and maintenance, the 2025 production guidance for the Canadian Highland Valley Copper mine was reduced from 135,000-150,000 mt to 120,000-130,000 mt.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On October 9, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2510 contract were reported at a discount of 70 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 15 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 85,400 to 86,080 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper prices continuously widened from 84,800 yuan/mt to 85,980 yuan/mt, then experienced a brief pullback before continuing to surge, rising over 3,000 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. The inter-month spread showed a Contango structure, trading between C60-C20 yuan/mt in the morning. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract widened to over 1,000 yuan/mt. The holiday period did not see inventory buildup in the Shanghai region, with some imported cargoes yet to arrive and domestic supplies still in transit. Inventory is expected to increase over the weekend. Approaching delivery and with a Contango structure present, spot discounts for SHFE copper are expected to be limited.
(2) Guangdong: On October 9, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at parity to a premium of 60 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 30 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 70-50 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 60 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price for Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 85,700 yuan/mt, up 2,335 yuan/mt from the previous day, while the average price for SX-EW copper was 85,610 yuan/mt, also up 2,335 yuan/mt. Overall, the sharp rise in copper prices led to weak restocking interest from downstream consumers, causing spot premiums to decline significantly.
(3) Imported copper: On October 9, the warrant price was $45-53/mt, QP October, with the average price down by $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L price was $45-61/mt, QP November, with the average price down by $1/mt from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was priced at $22-30/mt, QP November, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. The reference price was for cargo arriving in mid to late October.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on October 9, the futures closing price was 86,250 yuan/mt, up 3,010 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums/discounts averaged 15 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of recycled copper raw materials increased by 2,500 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 77,700-77,900 yuan/mt, up 2,500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,499 yuan/mt, up 350 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,080 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, due to the continuous rise in LME copper prices during the National Day holiday, SHFE copper opened with a gain of 3,000 yuan/mt after the holiday. Traders of recycled copper raw materials were very willing to sell, but under the rapid price expansion, secondary copper rod enterprises were not in a hurry to purchase and intended to lower their procurement prices. As a result, the transactions of recycled copper raw materials were mediocre.
(5) Inventory: On October 8, LME copper inventories increased by 275 mt to 139,475 mt; on October 9, SHFE warrant inventory increased by 2,880 mt to 29,703 mt.
Price: On the macro front, US Fed officials showed clear divergence on cutting interest rates. Williams supported further rate cuts, arguing that it is necessary to address the risk of a slowdown in the job market. Barr and Kashkari, however, advocated for a cautious approach. Additionally, despite the US government shutdown, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has recalled some employees to start compiling the September CPI report. This move will effectively reduce the uncertainty caused by missing data, which is positive for copper prices. On the fundamental side, supply, the arrivals of imported and domestic sources increased, making the supply slightly loose. Demand side, the post-holiday high copper prices have severely dampened downstream purchasing sentiment, leading to sluggish spot market transactions. Inventory, as of October 9, SMM's national mainstream copper inventories increased by 18,000 mt to 166,300 mt compared to September 29. In summary, although there are potential positives on the macro front, the high copper prices have significantly suppressed downstream demand, coupled with rising inventories, it is expected that the upside for copper prices today will be limited.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely solely on this information, as any decision made by the client is unrelated to SMM.]